Description: 2021 Life Meeting - Session 5C: Assumption Setting in an Uncertain World 8.31.21 Recording

Description: Actuaries are increasingly being asked to incorporate Economic Scenario Generators into their work. Whether it be a Risk Neutral model for pricing or a Real-World version for Economic Capital modelling, using these tools can help produce a much more robust analysis. Unfortunately, these models and their underpinnings are also very complicated, which can lead to confusion. The presenters in this session will try to demystify some of this. In particular, they will address the following questions: • What is the difference between Real-World and Risk Neutral scenarios? • When should I use one or the other? • How are these models calibrated? • What are some of the misconceptions about these models?

Description: Variable annuity (VA) writers are facing many challenges in today's economic environment. Equity market volatility and low interest rates make guaranteed benefits increasingly expensive to hedge. Both GAAP Long Duration Targeted Improvements and the recent VM-21 changes will drive the need to manage the VA business under a new set of lenses. During this session, the presenters will explore the various in-force management tools VA writers have available and comment on their effectiveness.

Description: Data science, predictive analytics and AI are certainly the buzzwords these days. They are heavily used and developed in underwriting and marketing but for most actuaries, they might/may as well be science fiction. The presenters will demonstrate how a normal actuary can utilize data science techniques in their daily job function without forming an official data science team within a company. It can be done in a gradual fashion so that normal business is not disrupted and improvements are made over time. The usage of data science techniques will include demonstrations of the following areas: - Regression analysis - Economic scenario generator - Experience study - Data quality checks - Inforce compression for explicit hedging

Description: This report presents an analysis of morbidity experience under individual medical expense policies in force during the 1968, 1969, and 1970 calendar years. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1972 Reports

Description: This is the Introductory Study Note for the Society of Actuaries Financial Economic Theory and Engineering examination for Spring 2012 that will be given on Thursday, April 26th, from 8:30 a.m. - 11:45 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. – 4:45 p.m.

Description: Discusses good sources of mortality data and possible distortions in the data.

Description: This is a review of literature about the development and application of medical risk adjustment models. The current Medicare model, principal inpatient diagnosis cost group [PIPDCG] and proposed enhancements are the subject of many articles. Risk adjustment is used for both provider payment and performance measurement.

Description: This 1977 report provided morbidity experience under individual health policies in force during the 1973 and 1974 calendar years.

Description: The SOA's Committee on Finance Research is please to make available the results of this research project, jointly sponsored by the SOA and CAS, that explores economic series and provides and Excel based tool for generating future economic scenarios. This is an Excel Spreadsheet for Appendix C showing Simulated Financial Scenario Data of inflation rates and interest rates from this research project. Please see the SOA website for the full report and other related spreadsheets.